Hamilton region Scenario Mapping Project
The Local Global Project has been active in the Hamilton region for many years now. Discussions with the community highlighted a need for a greater understanding of climate change and the possible impacts for the region. A Climate Change forum was held in April 2007. Speakers highlighted the opportunities to work collectively to respond to an increasingly uncertain future.
A scenario mapping workshop is the next step in this work. It is being jointly organised by the Local Global Project and the Global Cities Institute, RMIT. The aim of the scenario mapping workshop is to bring together a diverse range of community representatives with researchers and scenarists to talk about the issues, to identify the different possible futures that could result within the region, to consider their implications, and to identify adaptation options that could be incorporated into the long-term strategic plans for the Hamilton region to minimise the negative impacts of climate change and maximise opportunities. The two day workshop will be held on 4-5 February at the Department of Primary Industries in Hamilton. Attendance is by invitation only.
Dr Jodi-Anne M Smith, Senior Research Fellow, Global Cities Institute, RMIT University
jodi-anne.smith@rmit.edu.au
Documents relevant to the project
Predicted Climate Change Impacts
Discussions with CSIRO and Department of Sustainability and Environment staff reveal that the below is the most up to date information available on predicted climate change impacts (CCI) for Victoria, Glenelg Hopkins and the Hamilton Region.
DSE (2006) Climate Change in Victoria: a summary
This document is listed on their website as a 2007 summary, yet its publication date is 2006. It is the latest information available and is a general, education focussed document detailing what the greenhouse effect is and the changes to climate up till now plus predictions. Victoria is expected to have increasing temperatures (0.3 to 1.6oc by 2030), decreasing rainfall (-10% to +2% by 2030), more hot days over 35 oc (1 to 3 additional days by 2030); increases in droughts and severe fire risk days (4 to 25% increase by 2020). Predictions also suggest increased solar radiation reaching the ground due to less cloud cover (0 to 4% by 2030), increased sea level rise and storm surge, decreases in snow (10 to 39% by 2020 worse for some areas), runoff decrease (2 to 30% by 2030), decrease in total yield in water supply (4 to 15% by 2020), and an increase in heat related deaths (currently 289 per year in Melbourne, by 2020 predicted to be 582 to 604 per year).
DSE (2004) Climate Change in the Glenelg Hopkins Region
The above website contains a summary of the expected CC&I for the region, as well as downloadable summary reports. The predictions include a warming climate with more hot days over 35°c (Hamilton currently experiences 6 days per year, predicted to be 6 to 9 days by 2030); less winter days below 0°c (Hamilton currently experiences 8 days per year predicted to be 3 to 6 days by 2030); and less rainfall (annual changes of +3 to -10% by 2030).
Future seasonal climate projections for the Glenelg Hopkins region |
|
2030 |
2070 |
Spring |
Warmer by 0.2 to 1.4°c |
Warmer by 0.7 to 4.3°c |
|
Drier by 0 to 20% |
Drier by 5 to 60% |
Summer |
Warmer by 0.2 to 1.4°c |
Warmer by 0.7 to 4.3°c |
|
Precipitation decrease likely (+3 to -15%) |
Precipitation decrease likely (+10 to -40%) |
Autumn |
Warmer by 0.2 to 1.4°c |
Warmer by 0.7 to 4.3°c |
|
Precipitation decrease likely (+3 to -10%) |
Precipitation decrease likely (+10 to -25%) |
Winter |
Warmer by 0.2 to 1.4°c |
Warmer by 0.7 to 4.3°c |
|
Precipitation decrease likely (+3 to -10%) |
Precipitation decrease likely (+10 to -25%) |
|
As a result the authors expect there will be greater evaporation, less runoff and drier soils. There will be more risk of extreme weather events – rainfall, bushfires, and extended droughts. The impact on primary production is complicated to predict, but they suggest that
grazing and broad acre cropping may benefit from higher carbon dioxide concentrations, but this will be offset by higher temperatures. For high rainfall pastures, the risk of an overall negative impact on production is higher if substantial rainfall decreases accompany the warming, and may lead to declines in animal production
research on wheat has shown that that regional production is likely to be maintained or increase unless the more extreme rainfall decrease projections occur. However, grain quality may decline
viticulture in the region will be affected by possible reductions in grape quality due to higher temperatures, however, there may be opportunities for new varieties better adapted to warmer climates.
Impacts on water supply, quality and availability are discussed, along with the likely increase of weeds and pests. The region is expected to become a safe haven for some species that will migrate to the area, however, habitat fragmentation with no consistent migration corridor will make it difficult. Predicted impacts on coasts include higher sea levels, greater erosion of cliffs and infrastructure as well as flooding of low-lying areas.
Existing Southern Grampians Shire Council Plan
Council Plan 2005-2009 This document contains the Council’s Plan for the Hamilton region. Coralie said that she will be interested in the results of the workshop as a source of data for the Council to consider in updating the plan.
Actions being taken in the Hamilton region
There are many organisations and groups already thinking about and taking action on climate change issues in the Hamilton region. Here we will summarise information on these. If you would like to have information about your activities listed please send details to: jodi-anne.smith@rmit.edu.au
Wannon Water
These documents show some of the work being undertaken by Wannon Water on the issue of climate change adaptation. For more information see their website
• Water supply demand strategy An excerpt of predicted changes in supply and demand of water for the Hamilton region.
• Climate change projections
A set of powerpoint slides by Tim Harrold of Wannon Water.
Interesting reading
Local Global Program Climate Change Forum: From Where Will Our Water Come...and When?
This is the link to the website containing all the presentations that were made as a part of the April 2007 forum on Climate Change.
WGCMA Gippsland Regional Adaptation Approach for CCI and Adaptation
While not directly relevant to the Hamilton region I thought this was interesting. It shows what is being done in a nearby region on these issues and it is likely that similar issues will be raised at our scenario workshop. The West Gippsland Catchment Management Authority (WGCMA) held a series of workshops in 2005 with stakeholders in the Gippsland region to explore the issue of how the region could adapt to the predicted CCI. Participants from a range of sectors were asked to complete ‘Climate Impact Cards’ listing their major concerns about the predicted impacts. They were also asked to list what further information they need and the types of decisions this would impact on. These are recorded as an Excel file as Appendix 4 of the report (3rd tab/spreadsheet).
A wide range of issues are raised including: impact of a drier climate (less rainfall, less frosts) on crops, dairy and food production; changes required to farming practices; ability of farmers and others to change / farm viability; need to reduce water usage / reuse grey water; increased bush fire risk; impact of fire on catchment yields; disease risks; farming land being developed for housing; viability of small coastal towns – rebuilding dunes / relocation; impact on energy production with less rainfall meaning less cooling water for use in production; ability of natural resources to cope / vulnerability of ecosystems / loss of biodiversity; changes to population; ability of Country Fire Authority to attract volunteers / need to do fuel reduction burning to minimise fire risk; climate resistant species for revegetation; changes to runoff; tension between water demand for farming and environmental flows; drinking water quality; planning approvals should take water availability into consideration; increased flooding; infrastructure and planning for extreme rainfall and storm events. A full report analysing the results is available.
ABARE Australian Commodities – Climate Change Sept 2007 This report explores the issues and challenges for Australian agriculture and forestry that CC poses. It talks about impacts of CC and possible adaptation and mitigation options. Reproduced below is their summary of adaptation options.
Box 1 Climate change adaptation options in agriculture and forestry |
|
Cropping and horticulture |
• alter the variety or species planted to those with more appropriate thermal time and vernalisation requirements and/or with increased resistance to heat, frosts or drought |
• alter application times and amount of fertiliser or irrigated water to maintain growth and quality |
• alter timing and location of cropping activities |
• enhance water efficiency by using zero tillage, retaining crop residues and changing planting patterns |
• in lower rainfall areas, enhance water management by implementing or expanding water harvesting technologies and acting to conserve soil moisture; in higher rainfall areas, improve water management to prevent waterlogging, erosion and nutrient leaching |
• enhance pest, disease and weed management practices through integrated pest and pathogen management and using more pest and disease resistant varieties |
• reduce potential for soil erosion by retaining stubble, reducing fallow times, etc |
| |
Livestock |
• adapt annual production cycle to better match feed production |
• alter pasture rotations and modify grazing times |
• alter forage and animal species or breeds |
• provide supplementary feeding |
• provide alternative housing infrastructure — for example, winter housing or increased shading |
• change or improve feed concentrates |
| |
Planted forests |
• change management intensity, harvesting patterns, and rotation periods as appropriate |
• select a variety of species |
• manage landscape to reduce fire risk |
• undertake prescribed burning to reduce vulnerability to fire damage |
| |
Sectorwide |
• use seasonal forecasting to reduce production risk |
• diversify farm income by integrating other farming activities or increasing off-farm income |
• move to alternative income sources outside of agriculture |
• minimise high input costs in high risk areas or time periods |
• have emergency response plans in place for fire, flood, hail and heavy rain etc |
• offset increased costs of managing climate change by reducing other costs |
• use financial risk management tools or options to manage risk — for example, futures contracts, water trading, carbon offsets, income stabilisation, insurance |
• spread risk through multiple holdings in different climatic regions |
• increase resilience of land systems through landcare and stewardship initiatives. |
Sources: Government of South Australia (2007); Smit and Skinner (2002); AGO (2007); IPCC (2007); PMSEIC (2007). |
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CSIRO Rural Australia Providing Climate Solutions 2007
This report does not focus on adaptation, but I thought I’d include it as some people may be interested in reading it. It ‘focuses on the prospects of rural Australian’s becoming valued service providers in three important areas of Australia’s low carbon future: 1) providing clean energy and electricity; 2) mobilising agricultural mitigation and greenhouse gas offsets; and 3) supporting environmental stewardship on private land.
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